Over the last 100 days, the local media, international media, blogs, etc., have been writing about how history was made on 9th May 2018 when Malaysia saw a regime change after 61 years of the same government. They are also giving an impression that Umno was totally wiped out and is now finished and is going to be buried for good.
(Incidentally, they said the same thing about PAS in 1986 when it won just one seat and again about PKR in 2004 when it also won just one seat. Nevertheless, both bounced back and did not lie down and die).
That is actually not true and is just a spin. Umno still won the most number of seats and the highest number of votes compared to PKR, DAP, PAS, PPBM, PBB, PAN, Warisan and the others. In the 5th May 2013 general election, Umno won 88 seats and 3.2 million votes. In the 9th May 2018 general election, Umno won 53 seats and 2.5 million votes.
Umno’s share of votes in 2018 was 20% compared to 29% in 2013. Around 11 million votes were cast in 2013 compared to 12 million in 2018. So, 2018 saw an increase of 1 million voters and it looks like these 1 million new voters did not go to Umno — plus Umno lost 700,000 of its traditional voters. And that saw a 9% drop in vote-share for Umno in 2018.
Now, in 2013, Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad already whacked Najib Tun Razak for what he said is Najib neglecting the Malays and wasting time with the Chinese. In fact, Malaysia Today had been saying the same thing over the last five years and because of that many people called me a racist.
This is not racism. This is political reality. In some places in America the ‘Black vote’, or ‘Jewish vote’, or ‘Latino vote’, or ‘Irish vote’, etc., are important and you need to win over these communities. This is not racism. This is how you win elections.
Mahathir whacked Najib for neglecting the Malays, who are the ones keeping Umno in power, while wasting time with the Chinese, who will never support Umno — never mind what you do for them. And I kept saying the same thing.
Many of these Malay voters are from the Felda settlements. That was the reason why Malaysia Today whacked Mohd Isa Abdul Samad and exposed his wrongdoings. Malaysia Today also whacked Abdul Azeez Abdul Rahim and exposed his transgressions for the same reason.
There were many things wrong with Felda and Tabung Haji and Isa Samad and Azeez Rahim were albatrosses around Naib’s neck. Malaysia Today warned Umno that if they are not careful they are going to lose 40 of their 88 seats from the Malay heartland and be left with just 48 seats or so.
Anyway, Umno did not heed what Mahathir said (that Najib should stop wasting his time with the Chinese and focus on the Malays — who are the ones keeping Umno in power) and also did not heed what I said (which is if Umno does not get rid of Isa Samad and Azeez Rahim they may lose 40 or so seats from the Malay heartland).
And, in May 2018, Umno won only 54 seats instead of 88 like in May 2013.
So herein lies the problem. Najib and Umno did not take care of the Malay voters. They thought they could still get the Chinese and Indians to swing. How many times must I keep saying it? The Chinese and Indians are totally gone. Finished! Almost 100% of the non-Malays are anti-Umno, and by extensions anti-BN. So, forget about the Chinese and Indians. Make sure the Malays support you.
Only 30% of the Malays vote Pakatan Harapan in 2018. That means 70% still voted for Umno and PAS. And the biggest blunder Umno made is they did not think they needed PAS and could still retain power without PAS.
And that cost Umno the election. Many in Umno were so arrogant they thought they can make it all on their own. They don’t need the Chinese, they don’t need the Indians, and they don’t need PAS. As early as January 2018 Umno was told, without PAS, BN will win just 80 seats or so. Only if they ‘sort matters’ out with PAS can BN win around 130 seats.
Those arrogant bastards in Najib’s office did not heed the advice and the result of GE14 speaks for itself.
Umno won 54 seats in 2018 (88 seats in 2013, 79 seats in 2008, 109 seats in 2004, and 72 seats in 1999). PAS and PAN took away 29 seats. PPBM took away another 13 seats, while Warisan took another 8 seats.
DAP’s seats increased to 42 from 38 in 2013 while PKR increased to 47 from 30 in 2013. PKR was the best performer in 2018 in terms of seat increase but it saw a drop in popular votes. It was DAP that saw a large increase in votes even though its seats only slightly increased.
So, there you have it. If the Malay seats from Umno, PPBM, PAS, PAN and PKR come under one coalition, then Pakatan Harapan would not be the government — and neither will Barisan Nasional. The government will be a unity government of the Malays from Umno, PPBM, PAS, PAN and PKR.
And that is going to be the future of Malaysian politics — a race-based and religion-based unity government with the Chinese and Indians as the opposition. That will be the only way to go for Malay political dominance. However, first of all, the Malays-Muslims must face oppression and discrimination before that will happen.